Ethereum (ETH) spearheaded a crypto-wide sell-off this week, dropping below the $4,000 level and igniting fresh worries around macro headwinds and leveraged positions.
Market Moves & Key Drivers
On Thursday, Ether dropped ~3% in Asian trading, skewed sentiment strongly risk-off as U.S. government shutdown odds increased to 77% per Polymarket. The impending $20–$25 billion crypto options expiry is also adding to the pressure, with investors scooping up bearish OTM ether puts in recent trading sessions. Derivatives metrics indicate Ether futures open interest jumped to new highs of over 2.2 million ETH, while the three-month annualized basis fell from ~9.8% to ~7%, indicating a slowing bullish force. Also, in the options market, premium is tilting in favor of puts versus calls—another bearish signal.
Resistance & Support Zones
Technically, Ethereum is struggling to retake $4,580, a point analysts consider pivotal for a breakout. On the bears' side, the $3,875–$4,000 area is serving as a crucial support band; a violation could trigger a way down to $3,600–$3,400. In spite of the pullback, ETH recorded good relative performance during Q3—up ~75% vs. Bitcoin. Institutional flows seem to be standing up better than retail, providing support under supply pressure.
Institutional & Ecosystem Highlights
On some key corporate news, Ether Machine completed a $654 million private funding round—contribution in ETH as well as cash—as it gets ready to make its Nasdaq listing. The company has ~495,362 ETH (~$2+ billion) on hand and is presenting itself as a treasury-driven crypto company. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s rally in earlier months has reignited questions of whether ETH could challenge its “digital oil” narrative. Some analysts remain bullish on a $5,000 end-of-year target, though momentum must return for that to become realistic.
Cointelegraph
Outlook & Risks
In the short term, ETH's path is strongly dependent on macro leads (particularly U.S. inflation and government spending) and the results of the upcoming options expiry. A successful reclamation of $4,580 could realign sentiment to neutral/positive, and an inability to sustain $4,000 might lead to deeper consolidation. With exposure to high derivatives and a put skew, volatility should continue high. Traders need to rely on risk management—stop limits, position size, and hedging—considering how quickly momentum can turn.