.png)
The event-driven trading platform Kalshi has posted a remarkable performance this year, setting fresh milestones in volume and liquidity across its markets. In October 2025, the platform recorded monthly trading volume of over US $4.39 billion, a level it described as historic.
That surge underscores how demand for prediction markets contracts where users trade yes/no outcomes tied to real-world events has moved from niche to mainstream. Kalshi’s rapid growth is being fueled by its expansion into sports, politics and economic event markets, broader retail access, and a growing institutional market-making base.
Why This Surge Matters
Kalshi’s data show a dramatic shift in its market share in the event-contract space. In September 2025 it captured about 62.2 % of global prediction-market volume, according to industry reporting. Meanwhile, its month-on-month volume escalated into the billions. Because prediction markets have usually been smaller and more speculative, this scale represents a key inflection point for the sector.
Liquidity is equally important: higher transaction volume means easier entry and exit for traders, tighter spreads and wider recognition among financial-market participants. In effect, Kalshi is shifting from fringe prediction market into something resembling a conventional exchange for event-based bets.
What’s Driving It
Several factors are combining to power the growth:
-
Broader product offering: Kalshi has added markets tied to major sporting events, corporate IPO outcomes and political contests, making its contract universe more engaging and accessible.
-
Retail accessibility: By emphasising a Web2-style interface (rather than crypto wallet only) and integrating via platforms, Kalshi has lowered the barrier for non-crypto users.
Market-maker participation: Institutional market-making (e.g., via firms such as Susquehanna International Group) has helped boost liquidity and credibility of contracts.
-
Regulatory clarity: Kalshi is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a designated contract market, which provides a legal foundation for its operations in the U.S.
The Bigger Picture
The rise of Kalshi signals a broader shift in how financial markets are evolving. Prediction markets increasingly serve as both speculative trading venues and tools for hedging real-world risk (e.g., on economic data, elections or corporate outcomes). With rising volume and liquidity, they may begin to more closely resemble parts of the derivatives industry.
However, growth carries risks. As Kalshi expands into sports and other high-volume event types, it faces heightened regulatory scrutiny. Some state regulators have questioned whether event-contracts are equivalent to unauthorised gambling in some jurisdictions.
As one market observer put it, “platforms like Kalshi are challenging the border between trading and betting” and that raises questions about oversight, consumer protections and the future shape of financial markets.
What to Watch
For investors and traders, these are key indicators to keep an eye on:
-
Volume growth: An increase in monthly trading volume above the current record suggests continued momentum.
-
Global expansion: Kalshi’s ability to offer markets in more jurisdictions and across more event-types.
-
Regulatory developments: How U.S. states and regulators interpret prediction-market contracts (sports, elections, corporate outcomes).
-
Market-maker liquidity: Entry of new institutional players will further improve spreads and position sizes.
-
Product innovation: New contract types (e.g., parlays, corporate outcomes, multi-event contracts) may accelerate adoption.
FAQs
Q1: What is Kalshi and how does it differ from traditional betting?
Kalshi is a CFTC-registered event-contract marketplace where users trade contracts tied to yes/no outcomes of real-world events. Unlike traditional betting, contracts are tradable and pricing reflects market probability rather than fixed odds.
Q2: Why is the record volume of over US $4.39 billion significant?
That level of monthly volume shows that Kalshi has moved into mainstream scale, drawing broad user interest, improved liquidity and greater institutional involvement, which typically leads to tighter spreads and higher credibility.
Q3: What types of events can users trade on Kalshi?
Users can trade on a wide range: political elections, economic indicators (e.g., inflation, unemployment), company IPO outcomes, sporting events, weather and more. The diversity attracts different types of traders.
Q4: Are there risks involved in using Kalshi?
Yes. While contracts may resemble trading, they carry risk of loss, especially for inexperienced users. Also regulatory risk is present: some contracts may be subject to changing laws or state licencing rules.
Q5: How does Kalshi ensure liquidity for its contracts?
Liquidity is aided by institutional market-makers providing depth in order books, higher volume enabling easier entry/exit and the company’s growth attracting more participants which tighten bid/ask spreads.
Q6: What is next for prediction markets like Kalshi?
The next phase includes broader global expansion, more varied contract types (multi-event, parlays), deeper institutional adoption and likely more regulatory oversight. The technology and market model may increasingly blend with traditional financial derivatives.
