Bitcoin Could Reach $1.3 Million by 2035, Bitwise CIO Says

 Key Takeaways

·         Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan modeled Bitcoin at $1.3 million by 2035.

·         The forecast is based on Bitcoin capturing a larger share of gold’s market.

·         Institutional demand for long-term Bitcoin assumptions is increasing.

Bitcoin: A Long-Term Institutional Forecast

Bitcoin from institutional asset managers is increasingly focused on long-term valuation frameworks rather than near-term price targets. Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has presented a model suggesting Bitcoin could reach approximately $1.3 million per coin by 2035, assuming sustained adoption and structural demand growth.

The forecast matters because it reflects how traditional allocators are beginning to evaluate Bitcoin alongside established macro assets, rather than treating it as a purely speculative instrument. According to Hougan, large institutions are now requesting decade-long capital market assumptions for Bitcoin, a shift from earlier cycles dominated by short-term trading narratives.

Bitcoin and the Gold Market Comparison

Hougan’s model frames Bitcoin as a competing store of value to gold. Today, Bitcoin’s total market capitalization represents a single-digit percentage of gold’s estimated global market. The Bitwise analysis assumes that over the next decade, Bitcoin gradually increases its share of that market as investors seek digitally native, scarce assets.

Under the model, Bitcoin’s supply remains capped, while demand rises from institutions such as pension funds, endowments, and wealth managers. The projection does not rely on changes to Bitcoin’s protocol or speculative adoption curves, but rather on gradual portfolio reallocation trends already observed in traditional finance.

Key Assumptions Behind the Projection

The $1.3 million figure is derived from several core assumptions outlined by Bitwise:

·         Bitcoin expands its share of the gold market to roughly one quarter by 2035

·         Gold continues to function as a primary global store of value

·         Institutional access to Bitcoin improves through regulated products and custody

·         Volatility trends moderate over time, improving Bitcoin’s portfolio fit

Bitwise has described the estimate as a base-case scenario, not a guaranteed outcome. The model is designed to provide institutions with a reference point for long-term planning rather than a prediction of market timing.

Institutional Signals and Industry Response

Bitwise reports that more than a dozen large investment platforms have recently asked for long-term Bitcoin return assumptions. These platforms collectively manage trillions of dollars in assets and typically require conservative, data-driven frameworks before allocating capital.

The request itself signals a maturation in how Bitcoin is being discussed internally at large firms. Instead of debating whether Bitcoin belongs in portfolios at all, institutions are increasingly focused on sizing, risk contribution, and long-term expected returns.

At the same time, industry participants caution that such models remain sensitive to regulatory outcomes, macroeconomic shifts, and investor behavior. Long-dated forecasts inherently carry uncertainty, particularly in an asset class that remains relatively young.

Market Impact Remains Indirect

The publication of Bitwise’s long-term model has not been linked to immediate market movements. Bitcoin’s price action continues to be driven primarily by macroeconomic data, liquidity conditions, and near-term flows into regulated investment products.

However, the growing availability of institutional-grade valuation models may influence capital allocation decisions over longer horizons. Analysts note that even small portfolio allocations from large institutions could have outsized effects on Bitcoin’s market structure over time.

What Comes Next

Bitwise is expected to continue refining its assumptions as more institutional data becomes available. Other asset managers may publish competing frameworks, potentially leading to a broader consensus range for long-term Bitcoin valuations.

Regulatory clarity, particularly in major financial centers, will remain a key variable. Adoption through compliant investment vehicles and custody solutions is likely to determine whether the assumptions underpinning the $1.3 million model remain viable.