Bitcoin Reclaims $95,000 as Tariff Ruling Threatens Inflation-Driven Market Optimism
Bitcoin’s $95K Breakout: What the Numbers Say
Bitcoin climbed more than 4% in 48 hours, reclaiming $95,000 after spending most of January consolidating between $88,000 and $92,000. On-chain data shows a sharp increase in spot buying volume, with 24-hour trading volume rising nearly 18% compared to the prior week.
Derivatives markets also lit up. Open interest across major futures exchanges increased by approximately $1.6 billion, signaling renewed leverage and speculative interest. Short liquidations accounted for nearly $210 million, suggesting the move higher was amplified by traders positioned against the breakout.
Technically, Bitcoin’s reclaim of the 200-day exponential moving average, currently near $93,400, has been viewed by analysts as a bullish confirmation. However, resistance between $97,000 and $98,500 remains heavy, with historical sell pressure concentrated in that range.
CPI Data Fuels “Soft Landing” Narrative
The latest U.S. inflation data played a major role in Bitcoin’s surge. Headline CPI remained steady near 2.7% year-over-year, while core inflation slowed to roughly 3.2%, its lowest level in months. Month-over-month CPI growth came in below expectations, reinforcing the view that inflation continues to cool gradually.
Bond markets reacted quickly. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dipped below 4.1%, while rate futures markets increased the probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate cut later in the year. Historically, periods of easing financial conditions have aligned with stronger performance in Bitcoin and other high-beta assets.
Risk sentiment improved across the board, with crypto-related equities rising between 5% and 9% on the same day Bitcoin reclaimed $95K.
Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Clouds the Outlook
Despite bullish inflation data, investors are bracing for a potentially market-moving Supreme Court decision on global tariffs imposed under emergency powers. Economists estimate the disputed tariffs cover more than $300 billion in imported goods, directly impacting supply chains, consumer prices, and corporate margins.
If the ruling invalidates the tariffs, analysts expect short-term disinflationary effects but also legal and fiscal uncertainty, including potential refund liabilities that could exceed $50 billion. Such outcomes could tighten financial conditions and pressure risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Markets generally dislike uncertainty, and Bitcoin has shown sensitivity to macro legal and policy shocks over the past two years.
Market Volatility Is Rising Again
Volatility metrics confirm growing tension. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility climbed above 52%, up from 46% earlier this month. At the same time, funding rates across perpetual futures have turned modestly positive, indicating bullish positioning but not yet at euphoric levels.
This suggests traders are optimistic, but cautious.
A failure to hold above $95,000 could trigger a pullback toward $91,000-$92,000, where strong spot demand previously emerged. Conversely, a clean breakout above $98,500 could open the door to a psychological test of $100,000, a level that has not yet been sustainably reached.
The Bigger Picture for Bitcoin
Bitcoin is increasingly trading like a macro asset reacting not just to crypto-native narratives, but to inflation trends, interest rates, and geopolitical policy decisions. While the CPI data supports the bullish “soft landing” thesis, the looming tariff ruling represents a wildcard that could disrupt markets quickly.
For now, Bitcoin’s return to $95,000 reflects confidence in easing inflation and improving liquidity conditions. Whether that confidence holds will depend less on charts and more on how legal and economic realities unfold in the days ahead.
