Macro Risks Stall Bitcoin Rally as $93,000 Resistance Holds Firm
As of this week, Bitcoin is trading in the low $92,000 range, down roughly 3.8% from its recent local high. Daily volume has also declined by nearly 12% week over week, suggesting reduced conviction from both retail and institutional participants. This slowdown highlights a clear shift in market dynamics: macro risk is now the primary driver of price action, not technical momentum.
Daily Close Failure Signals Weak Bull Control
From a technical standpoint, the $93,000 level has emerged as a major resistance zone. Over the past seven trading sessions, Bitcoin has tested this price area four times, yet each attempt resulted in rejection before the daily candle closed. Historically, failure to secure a daily close above resistance often precedes short-term consolidation or pullbacks.
On-chain data reinforces this hesitation. The percentage of profitable Bitcoin supply has dipped from 92% to 88%, indicating that more holders are sitting on unrealized losses compared to earlier this month. At the same time, exchange inflows have increased by approximately 9%, a metric often associated with short-term selling pressure.
Macro Environment Weighs on Risk Assets
The broader macroeconomic backdrop is playing a central role in Bitcoin’s struggle. Rising U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar index, and persistent inflation concerns have pushed investors toward defensive positioning. Risk assets across the board including equities and crypto are feeling the impact.
Correlation data shows Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 has climbed to 0.62, its highest level in nearly two months. This suggests BTC is currently trading more like a traditional risk asset than a standalone hedge. When equities wobble, Bitcoin follows making macro headlines just as important as crypto-native catalysts.
Momentum Indicators Show Cooling Trend
Momentum indicators also point to exhaustion. The daily RelativeStrength Index (RSI) has dropped from 68 to 54 over the past week, moving away from overbought territory and signaling weakening bullish strength. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has flattened, indicating a loss of upside acceleration.
Futures market data paints a similar picture. Open interest across major derivatives platforms has fallen by 6.5%, while funding rates have normalized after weeks of elevated positive readings. This suggests leveraged traders are reducing exposure, choosing caution over aggressive long positions.
Institutional Activity Remains Mixed
Institutional demand, while still present, has lost some of its punch. Spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows have slowed significantly, averaging $120 million per day, down from $310 million daily seen earlier in the month. While not outright bearish, this cooling trend removes a key support mechanism that previously helped Bitcoin push higher.
Long-term holders remain relatively stable, with wallets holding BTC for more than one year accounting for over 68% of total supply. This indicates strong structural confidence, even as short-term traders turn defensive.
What Needs to Happen for a Breakout
For Bitcoin to reclaim and hold above $93,000, analysts point to three key factors: easing macro pressure, renewed volume expansion, and a decisive daily close above resistance with confirmation. Without these elements aligning, BTC is likely to remain range-bound between $90,500 and $93,000 in the near term.
Final Outlook
Bitcoin is at a pivotal moment. While long-term fundamentals remain intact, short-term price action is clearly constrained by macroeconomic risk and fading momentum. Until broader financial conditions improve, the $93,000 level stands as a psychological and technical barrier that bulls must overcome to reignite the next leg higher.
