VanEck Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $2.9 Million by 2050

VanEck one of the most recognized global investment management firms, has released an analytical long-term outlook projecting that Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million per coin by 2050 under its base-case scenario. The forecast is part of the firm’s broader capital market assumptions and is already making waves across crypto markets, institutional desks, and macroeconomic circles.

This projection is not hype-driven. Instead, it’s built on adoption modeling, trade settlement assumptions, and global asset allocation trends, positioning Bitcoin as a potential core component of the future financial system.

Bitcoin Price Forecast Backed by Long-Term Growth Modeling

According to VanEck’s analysis, Bitcoin is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% from 2026 to 2050. If that trajectory holds, the price of Bitcoin would rise from current five-figure levels to nearly $2.9 million per BTC over the next 25 years.

For perspective, a 15% CAGR over multiple decades aligns with early-stage disruptive technologies that transition into global infrastructure. Bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million coins, combined with rising demand, plays a critical role in this valuation framework.

Bitcoin’s Role in Global Trade and Economic Activity

One of the strongest pillars of VanEck’s model is Bitcoin’s potential role in global trade settlement. The report assumes Bitcoin could facilitate:

10% of international trade settlements
5% of domestic trade transactions worldwide

With global trade volume currently exceeding $32 trillion annually, even partial Bitcoin integration would represent trillions of dollars in value moving across the Bitcoin network. This shift would dramatically increase transaction demand while reinforcing Bitcoin’s utility beyond speculative investment.

Central Bank Adoption and Reserve Allocation Assumptions

Another major driver behind the $2.9 million price target is Bitcoin’s projected adoption by central banks. VanEck estimates that by 2050, Bitcoin could make up approximately 2.5% of global central bank reserves.

As of today, global foreign exchange reserves exceed $12 trillion. A 2.5% allocation would translate to roughly $300 billion flowing into Bitcoin, significantly tightening supply and pushing long-term valuations higher. This assumption reflects growing concerns around sovereign debt, inflation, and fiat currency debasement.

Comparative Scenario Analysis: Bear, Base, and Bull Cases

VanEck outlines multiple scenarios to contextualize Bitcoin’s potential growth:

Bear Case: Slower adoption and regulatory friction limit Bitcoin’s role, resulting in a price near $130,000 by 2050.
Base Case: Moderate institutional adoption and trade usage push Bitcoin to $2.9 million, representing balanced growth.
Bull Case: Aggressive global adoption and monetary disruption drive prices beyond $50 million per BTC, often referred to as “hyper-bitcoinization.”

Portfolio Allocation Data and Risk-Adjusted Returns

From an investment standpoint, VanEck’s data suggests Bitcoin improves portfolio efficiency. Historical modeling shows:

A 1–3% Bitcoin allocation improves risk-adjusted returns in traditional portfolios.
Allocations as high as 20% have historically maximized return potential for high-risk investors.

Key Risks That Could Impact Long-Term Projections

Despite bullish analytics, the report highlights several risks:

Regulatory constraints in major economies
Competition from central bank digital currencies (CBDCs)
Technological and scaling limitations
Market volatility tied to macroeconomic cycles

Final Analytical Takeaway

VanEck’s $2.9 million Bitcoin projection is rooted in data-driven assumptions, global trade statistics, and long-term monetary trends. While ambitious, the forecast reflects a growing institutional belief that Bitcoin could evolve into a global settlement layer and reserve asset by mid-century.