XRP and Shiba Inu Face 50% Crash Risk Despite Legal Wins

Crypto markets don’t move on headlines alone they move on liquidity, usage, and investor confidence. While recent legal clarity around XRP removed one of the biggest regulatory overhangs in the market, price action has failed to show sustained upside. Historically, assets that rally on legal or regulatory news often experience a sharp pullback once the event is fully priced in.

Data from previous crypto cycles shows that over 70% of “news-driven rallies” retrace between 40% and 60% within six to twelve months, especially during periods of tightening financial conditions. As 2026 begins, analysts are increasingly pointing to macro pressure, declining volume, and weakening on-chain activity as reasons XRP and Shiba Inu could still fall as much as 50%.

XRP Price Outlook 2026: Adoption Still Lagging Behind Expectations

XRP currently trades well below its all-time high of $3.84, set in January 2018. As of early 2026, XRP remains down more than 80% from that peak despite years of development and partnerships.

One major concern is real-world usage. While XRP was designed for fast and low-cost cross-border payments, on-chain data shows that daily transaction volume has remained relatively flat year over year, averaging between 1.1 and 1.3 million transactions per day. That growth rate is modest compared to newer blockchain networks posting double-digit annual increases.

Supply is another critical factor. XRP has a fixed maximum supply of 100 billion tokens, with over 60% already circulating. Monthly escrow releases introduce additional selling pressure, especially during periods of low demand. Even when those tokens are re-locked, short-term market psychology often reacts negatively.

From a technical standpoint, analysts note that XRP has repeatedly failed to hold key resistance zones. If XRP breaks below major support levels, historical price models suggest a potential downside move of 45% to 55% before strong accumulation zones reappear.

Shiba Inu Forecast: Supply Economics Remain the Biggest Threat

Shiba Inu’s challenges are even more mathematical than emotional. With approximately 589 trillion SHIB tokens in circulation, even aggressive token burns barely dent total supply. In 2025, the average monthly burn rate reduced circulating supply by less than 0.01%, a figure considered negligible by most analysts.

At its 2021 peak, SHIB reached a market capitalization exceeding $40 billion. Today, despite being far below that price, it still sits in the multi-billion-dollar range. For SHIB to double from current levels, it would require billions in new capital inflows something meme-driven assets historically struggle to sustain outside bull markets.

On-chain metrics also paint a cautious picture. Active wallet addresses have declined by nearly 30% year over year, while transaction volume has trended lower across multiple quarters. These signals often precede extended price corrections rather than recoveries.

Technical and Macro Signals Pointing to a Possible 50% Drop

Technical analysis adds further weight to the bearish case. Both XRP and SHIB are trading below long-term moving averages, a condition that historically correlates with prolonged downtrends. Relative strength indicators have failed to reclaim bullish territory, suggesting weak momentum.

From a macro perspective, higher-for-longer interest rates continue to suppress speculative investment. During previous periods of restrictive monetary policy, high-volatility crypto assets underperformed Bitcoin by an average of 35%.

If overall crypto market capitalization contracts by even 20%, smaller and mid-cap tokens could see amplified losses often two to three times the market average.

Legal Clarity Isn’t the Same as Price Security

While legal victories removed uncertainty for XRP and broader crypto markets, they do not guarantee higher prices. Without strong adoption metrics, accelerating network usage, and sustained inflows of capital, both XRP and Shiba Inu remain vulnerable.

A 50% correction may sound extreme, but in crypto history, it is far from unusual. For investors, 2026 may be less about courtroom wins and more about fundamentals, discipline, and risk management.