With daily trading volume fluctuating between $2.5 billion and $4 billion in recent sessions, XRP remains one of the most actively traded digital assets globally. Its total market capitalization is currently sitting near $70-75 billion, keeping it among the top cryptocurrencies by market value.
XRP Down More Than 60% From 2025 Highs
Earlier in 2025, XRP reached a cycle high near $3.65, fueled by broader altcoin momentum and renewed optimism around regulatory clarity in the United States. However, since that peak, the token has retraced more than 60%, reflecting a combination of profit-taking, macroeconomic pressure, and declining risk appetite across digital assets.
Over the past 30 days alone, XRP has posted a double-digit percentage decline, underperforming some large-cap peers during key sell-offs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe has approached oversold territory, indicating that bearish momentum is strong but potentially nearing exhaustion.
Why the $1.30 Level Is Technically Crucial
From a chart perspective, the $1.30 zone has historically acted as a consolidation base during previous rallies. Technical analysts often call this a demand zone, where buying interest tends to step in.
If XRP closes decisively below $1.30 on a daily and weekly basis, analysts project downside targets near $1.20, followed by the psychological $1.00 support level. A drop toward $1.00 would represent roughly a 23% decline from current levels.
On the flip side, if buyers defend $1.30 and push price action above short-term resistance around $1.45-$1.50, XRP could attempt a recovery rally toward the $1.75 region. That would mark a potential 30% upside from current prices.
On-Chain Metrics Show Increased Realized Losses
Blockchain analytics reveal a sharp spike in realized losses meaning investors are selling XRP below their acquisition price. Data suggests realized losses recently hit their highest levels in over three years, a sign of capitulation among short-term holders.
Historically, such capitulation events often occur near local bottoms, though they do not guarantee immediate recovery. During previous cycles, similar spikes in realized losses were followed by consolidation periods lasting several weeks before any sustainable rebound.
Meanwhile, long-term holder supply remains relatively stable, indicating that larger investors are not exiting at the same pace as retail participants.
Broader Crypto Market Pressure Adds Uncertainty
XRP’s price action is not occurring in isolation. The broader cryptocurrency market has experienced elevated volatility due to macroeconomic concerns, including shifting interest rate expectations and liquidity tightening in global markets.
Bitcoin’s dominance currently sits above 50%, signaling that investors are rotating into perceived “safer” crypto assets during uncertainty. When Bitcoin dominance rises, altcoins like XRP often face additional downside pressure.
Correlation data shows XRP maintains a strong positive correlation with Bitcoin typically above 0.70 on a 30-day basis meaning broader market trends significantly influence its movement.
Volatility Remains Elevated
Implied volatility metrics for XRP options markets have increased notably over the past week, suggesting traders expect larger price swings ahead. Liquidation data also shows millions of dollars in leveraged positions wiped out during recent intraday drops.
For active traders, this environment creates both risk and opportunity. For long-term investors, the key focus remains whether XRP can maintain structural support above $1.30 and avoid a deeper correction cycle.
What Comes Next for XRP?
The next few daily closes will likely define short-term direction. A sustained defense of $1.30 could encourage dip buyers and momentum traders to step back in. However, a breakdown could accelerate selling pressure as stop-loss orders trigger below support.
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