Bitcoin might see another major correction before starting its next significant recovery, says well-known Chinese Bitcoin miner and industry veteran Jiang Zhuoer. In his latest market outlook, Zhuoer predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) will hit its bear market bottom between $42,000 and $44,000 during October to December 2026, citing historical market cycles and valuation metrics as the base for his forecast.
This prediction has received a lot of attention within the cryptocurrency community since Zhuoer has been recognized for years for analyzing Bitcoin through long-term market cycles instead of short-term price movements. Even though his forecast represents his personal market view and not a certainty, it has sparked new discussions on where the current crypto cycle will ultimately find support.
As Bitcoin continues to face a very difficult macroeconomic environment, investors are keeping a close eye on whether historical patterns can affect the world's biggest cryptocurrency once more.
Jiang Zhuoer Expects Bitcoin Bottom in Late 2026
According to Zhuoer, Bitcoin's current market structure looks like those seen in previous bear market cycles. His analysis uses Strategy's mNAV (multiple of Net Asset Value), a valuation metric that he believes has historically sent out signals right at major market turning points.
He pointed out that Strategy's mNAV has dropped to about 0. 72 - almost to the levels observed during the 2022 bear market itself. On the basis of past market behavior and Bitcoin's four-year cycle, Zhuoer thinks that the cryptocurrency could establish its next major bottom between October and December 2026, with prices possibly falling into the $42,000 to $44,000 range.
Even though the prediction is getting a lot of attention, it's still just one analyst's view and shouldn't be taken as a guaranteed price target.
Why Bitcoin Cycle Analysis Matters
Bitcoin has actually had several market cycles over the years that consisted of rapid bull markets followed by quite deep corrections.
Previous cycles were typically driven by the Bitcoin halving, investor sentiment, the broader macroeconomic environment, institutional participation, and the level of liquidity in financial markets themselves. Many analysts are still using cycle-based models to try to work out where Bitcoin will finally find support during long periods of market decline. However, every cycle has brought new elements into play - such as much greater institutional ownership, spot Bitcoin ETFs and an increasing amount of regulatory oversight.
Different Analysts Have Very Different Views
While Zhuoer's forecast has really sparked a discussion, not all market analysts think that Bitcoin will visit the low-$40,000 range again.
Some analysts feel that the growth in institutional demand because of spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasury adoption and increasing involvement by traditional financial institutions could offer much stronger long-term price support compared to previous cycles.
Others contend that macroeconomic uncertainty, interest rate policies and reduced market liquidity may put even more pressure on digital assets just before a sustainable recovery starts up again.
The very wide range of predictions itself really shows the uncertainty still characterizing the whole cryptocurrency market.
What Investors Should Watch Out for
Instead of being totally focused on a particular price target, lots of serious investors monitor broader market signs themselves.
Institutional ETF flows, activity on blockchain networks, major macroeconomic data, decisions by central banks and on-chain metrics really give valuable insights into changes happening in the market itself.
Bitcoin itself has shown over and over again that times of extreme pessimism are eventually followed by renewed accumulation and long-term recoveries. At the same time, trying to figure out exactly when market bottoms occur is truly very challenging indeed.
Investors are really advised to look at several views and hold on to suitable risk management plans instead of relying on just one forecast itself.
Why this Prediction Matters
Jiang Zhuoer's projection has really reignited the whole conversation around the potential course of Bitcoin within the present market cycle itself. His forecast - a possible $42,000 to $44,000 bottom in late 2026 - reflects one particular reading of historical cycle behavior and valuation models rather than a definite market outcome.
Whether Bitcoin will actually get to those levels is going to depend on all sorts of things, such as institutional investment, the state of the world economy, regulatory developments and the general atmosphere of the market itself.
To investors, the prediction acts as a reminder that Bitcoin continues to be an extremely volatile asset where both very positive and quite negative scenarios need very close consideration. Although long-term adoption of digital assets continues to keep getting bigger, short-term price movements are still very hard to predict with complete certainty - making really disciplined investment strategies and good risk management more essential than ever.
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